TIANJIN SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY ›› 2023, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (9): 94-98.

• Science & Society • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Space-Time Analysis of Air Pollution Concentration Prediction Error of WRF-Chem Model in Tianjin

MA Gengxue1, LI Gang2,*, YANG Jianbo3   

  1. 1. Tianjin Beichen Meteorological Observatory of Tianjin,Tianjin 300400,China;
    2. Tianjin Meteorological Observatory,Tianjin 300074,China;
    3. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Tianjin 300074,China
  • Received:2023-09-01 Online:2023-09-25 Published:2023-12-26

Abstract: By analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of errors between the daily forecast results of WRF-Chem model and the actual observations in Tianjin from 2019 to 2021,the following conclusions are drawn:(1) The model forecast results have the best correlation with O3 (0.90) and the worst correlation with PM10 (0.59). (2) The overestimation of pollutant concentration in the model prediction results is more significant,and the absolute error of PM10,PM2.5 and O3 prediction is significantly higher than the other three pollutants. (3) The order of relative error magnitude of model prediction is O3<CO<NO2<SO2<PM10<PM2.5,which is the highest in summer,approximate in autumn and winter,and the lowest in spring. The relative error in summer,autumn and winter is the largest in PM2.5,while in spring it is the largest in PM10. (4) From the spatial distribution characteristics of the relative error of the concentration prediction of the two main pollutants,PM2.5 is relatively large in Jizhou,central urban area and Dagang;PM10 is larger in Xiqing,Wuqing,Tanggu and Baodi in the central region. (5) The worst prediction effect of the model is PM10,followed by PM.

Key words: WRF-Chem model, air pollution concentration, forecast error, Tianjin

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