天津科技

天津科技 ›› 2023, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (9): 94-98.

• 科学与社会 • 上一篇    下一篇

天津WRF-Chem模式空气污染浓度预报误差时空分析

马庚雪1, 李钢2,*, 杨健博3   

  1. 1.天津市北辰区气象局 天津 300400;
    2.天津市气象台 天津 300074;
    3.天津市气象科学研究所 天津 300074
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-01 出版日期:2023-09-25 发布日期:2023-12-26
  • 通讯作者: *

Space-Time Analysis of Air Pollution Concentration Prediction Error of WRF-Chem Model in Tianjin

MA Gengxue1, LI Gang2,*, YANG Jianbo3   

  1. 1. Tianjin Beichen Meteorological Observatory of Tianjin,Tianjin 300400,China;
    2. Tianjin Meteorological Observatory,Tianjin 300074,China;
    3. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Tianjin 300074,China
  • Received:2023-09-01 Online:2023-09-25 Published:2023-12-26

摘要： 分析2019—2021年天津WRF-Chem模式日预报结果与实况对比的误差时空特征,得出以下结论：①模式预报结果与O3浓度的相关性最好（0.90）,与PM10（0.59）的最差;②模式预报结果对污染物浓度的高估现象更显著,PM10、PM2.5和O3浓度的预报绝对误差明显高于其他3种污染物;③模式预报的相对误差大小排序为O3<CO<NO2<SO2<PM10<PM2.5,且夏季最高,秋冬近似,春季最小,夏秋冬三季相对误差都为PM2.5最大,春季则为PM10最大;④从2种主要污染物浓度预报相对误差的空间分布特征来看,PM2.5为蓟州、中心城区、大港偏大,PM10为中部地区西青、武清、塘沽、宝坻偏大;⑤经综合衡量,模式预报效果最差的是PM10,其次为PM2.5。

关键词: WRF-Chem模式, 空气污染浓度, 预报误差, 天津

Abstract: By analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of errors between the daily forecast results of WRF-Chem model and the actual observations in Tianjin from 2019 to 2021,the following conclusions are drawn：（1） The model forecast results have the best correlation with O3 （0.90） and the worst correlation with PM10 （0.59）. （2） The overestimation of pollutant concentration in the model prediction results is more significant,and the absolute error of PM10,PM2.5 and O3 prediction is significantly higher than the other three pollutants. （3） The order of relative error magnitude of model prediction is O3<CO<NO2<SO2<PM10<PM2.5,which is the highest in summer,approximate in autumn and winter,and the lowest in spring. The relative error in summer,autumn and winter is the largest in PM2.5,while in spring it is the largest in PM10. （4） From the spatial distribution characteristics of the relative error of the concentration prediction of the two main pollutants,PM2.5 is relatively large in Jizhou,central urban area and Dagang;PM10 is larger in Xiqing,Wuqing,Tanggu and Baodi in the central region. （5） The worst prediction effect of the model is PM10,followed by PM.

Key words: WRF-Chem model, air pollution concentration, forecast error, Tianjin

中图分类号: